Book
The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
ummary/Abstract Not all swans are white, and not all events--no matter what the experts think--are predictable. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world.
Record details
- ISBN: 1400063515
- ISBN: 9781400063512
- Physical Description: xxviii, 366 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm.
- Publisher: New York. N.Y. : Random House, 2007.
Content descriptions
| Bibliography, etc. Note: | Includes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index. |
| Formatted Contents Note: | Ch. 1: The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic -- Ch. 2: Yevgenia's black swan -- Ch. 3: The speculator and the prostitute -- Ch. 4: One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker -- Ch. 5: Confirmation shmonfirmation! -- Ch. 6: The narrative fallacy -- Ch. 7: Living in the antechamber of hope -- Ch. 8: Glacoma Casanova's unfailing luck: the problem of silent evidence -- Ch. 9: The ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- Ch. 10: The scandal of prediction -- Ch. 11: How to look for bird poop -- Ch. 12 -- Epistemocracy, a dream -- Ch. 13: Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Ch. 14: From mediocristan to extremistan, and back -- Ch. 15: The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud -- Ch. 16: The aesthetics of randomness -- Ch. 17: Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places -- Ch. 18: The uncertainty of the phony -- Ch. 19: Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue: Yevgenia's white swans. |
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| Subject: | Perception Reality. Uncertainty (Information theory) > Social aspects. Forecasting |
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Summary:
ummary/Abstract Not all swans are white, and not all events--no matter what the experts think--are predictable. Taleb shows that black swans, like 9/11, cannot be foreseen and have an immeasurable impact on the world.
